“Bitcoin supply on exchanges continues to shrink, with fewer coins available to sell, more BTC moving to long-term holders, and liquidity tightening. Bitcoin is becoming increasingly scarce – supply down means volatility up,” Delta Exchange said on X.

Still, QCP Capital is urging caution, noting the persistent relative richness of bitcoin put options on Deribit. Puts are used as a hedge against potential price drops in the underlying asset. It added that crypto trends currently seem tied to the price of oil and the interest-rate outlook.

“The path forward remains anchored to oil and policy. A move lower in crude or clearer Fed signaling would support risk. Absent that, markets are likely to remain in a holding pattern, pricing uncertainty rather than resolution,” the Singapore-based firm said in a market update.

In traditional markets, WTI crude futures are trading around $90, having bounced from a low of $78 on Friday.

In the broader market, DeFi security risks remain an issue as hacks proliferate. Early today, the Sui-based Volo protocol was drained of over $3 million just days after the KelpDAO event that caused collateral damage across the sector. Stay alert!

Read more: For analysis of today’s activity in altcoins and derivatives, see Crypto Markets Today . For a comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”

What’s trending

This is an excerpt from CoinDesk newsletter ‘Daybook.’ Sign up here, if you haven’t already.

Today’s signal

BTC's daily price swings in candlestick format with key averages. (TradingView)
BTC’s daily price swings in candlestick format with key averages. (TradingView)

The chart shows bitcoin’s daily price movements in candlestick format, with lines indicating the 100-day and 200-day average prices.

BTC’s price has established a firm foothold above the 100-day average, represented by the white line. This is pivotal because the 100-day average capped the bounce in January, following which sellers re-established control, leading to a deeper crash to nearly $60,000.

Now the price has pierced through, which typically signals a strengthening of bullish momentum, focus shifts to the 200-day average, currently positioned at $85,900.

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