Why bitcoin’s ‘500-day rule’ faces its biggest test yet
The so-called ‘500-day rule’ says buying BTC roughly 500 days before a bitcoin halving and selling it about 500 days after would have produced profits in prior cycles.
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Summary
- A once-lucrative bitcoin trading strategy known as the 500-day rule, tied to the cryptocurrency’s four-year halving cycle, is signaling a buying window opens in late November and a potential exit around mid-August 2029.
- Analysts warn that this cycle may differ from past ones because U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs and institutional flows now dwarf new supply from miners, potentially weakening the halving’s impact on prices.
- While some market participants argue that the traditional halving-driven four-year cycle is fading, others say miner economics still anchor bitcoin’s long-term market structure, even if the 500-day rule proves less precise as a trading signal.
