Why Cantor Fitzgerald thinks Robinhood and Coinbase are the best ways to play the prediction market boom
Cantor Fitzgerald says Robinhood and Coinbase are best positioned to dominate the prediction market space by leveraging their massive retail scale and existing trading infrastructure.
What to know:
- A new Cantor Fitzgerald report says Robinhood and Coinbase are poised to be the main public-market winners from the rapid growth of prediction markets.
- Both companies are integrating event-based trading into their platforms, generating fee revenue from trading activity rather than taking the opposite side of users’ bets.
- While regulation remains uncertain, Cantor argues that prediction markets are more akin to financial forecasting tools than gambling and could evolve into hedging and risk-management instruments for institutional investors.
The report argues that while leading platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket remain private, listed companies are already tapping into the trend by integrating event-based trading into their apps.
These markets let users buy contracts tied to real-world outcomes, from elections to economic data, with prices reflecting the crowd’s view of probability.
“Prediction markets have exploded onto the scene,” Cantor Fitzgerald analyst Ramsey El-Assal wrote, noting that contract volumes are expected to continue their “impressive recent growth trend.”
For firms like Robinhood and Coinbase, the appeal is straightforward. Prediction markets generate revenue through trading activity, not by taking the other side of bets. That model mirrors equities and crypto trading, where both companies already operate at scale.
Robinhood, in particular, has seen strong early traction. The company launched its prediction markets hub following the 2024 U.S. election cycle, and the product quickly became one of its fastest-growing business lines by revenue. Since launch, users have traded billions of contracts tied to sports, politics and macro events.
