Why Michael Saylor’s bitcoin buys aren’t moving the needle anymore
Despite billions in purchases, MSTR demand is being outweighed by long term holder positioning and broader capital flows.
What to know:
- Strategy accounts for only 7% of gross inflows, meaning its buying is small relative to total market demand and easily offset by larger forces.
- Long-term holder positioning, revived supply, and realized cap changes are dominating flows.
- U.S. spot ETFs have added roughly $1 billion of inflows over the past 30 days, while miner issuance, at 450 BTC per day, contributes around $880 million of monthly supply pressure.
The answer lies in understanding market flows. MSTR demand currently accounts for roughly 7% of total gross inflows, rising to about 9% of net flows, according to checkonchain data. Gross flows reflect only positive demand entering the market, while net flows account for both buying and selling, giving a clearer picture of overall pressure. While Strategy remains a consistent buyer, its impact is relatively small compared to broader market forces.
Historically, its influence was larger. MSTR demand peaked above $15 billion in November 2024, coinciding with its all-time high stock price high and bitcoin over $100,000. Since then, activity has normalized to a range of $1 billion to $4 billion, with current demand around $2.8 billion over the past 30 days.
The dominant force is long-term holders (LTHs), coins held for more than 155 days, which are driving roughly $28.5 billion in supply change. A key subsection is revived 1+ year supply — older coins moving on chain over the past 30 days — which represents roughly $9 billion in change.
