Despite a 10.5% drop over the past three days, XRP is showing signs of a potential 20% price rally, fueled by a surge in withdrawal activity from South Korea’s Upbit exchange. The cryptocurrency is maintaining its bull flag breakout setup, a technical pattern that often precedes significant upward movements.
XRP’s Bull Flag Breakout
On the XRP/USD daily chart, the asset has broken out of a bull flag pattern, a bullish continuation pattern that forms after a strong upward trend. The recent pullback to retest the former upper trendline as new support is a common occurrence following such breakouts. The key support area is around the mid-$1.40s, aligning with the 20-day exponential moving average (20-day EMA).
Record Withdrawals from Upbit
According to CryptoQuant data, XRP holders have been withdrawing their holdings from Upbit at a record pace since December 2025. This trend, often associated with accumulation phases, suggests that retail and institutional investors are holding onto their XRP rather than selling it on exchanges. Historically, such withdrawal patterns have preceded significant price rallies. For instance, between 2021 and early 2023, elevated XRP withdrawals from Korean exchanges were followed by a sharp rally, with XRP climbing from below $1 to above $3, an increase of roughly 500%.
Whale Activity Signals Accumulation
The 90-day average whale flow for XRP has turned positive after staying negative for most of 2024 and early 2025. This shift indicates that large holders are no longer distributing as aggressively and may be accumulating the asset. Historically, moves from negative to positive whale flow have appeared during the early stages of trend reversals and accumulation-led consolidations. A similar pattern was observed during XRP’s climb from around $2.20 to $3.55 between April and September 2025.
Upbit as a Sentiment Barometer
Upbit has long been a significant trading venue for XRP, often serving as a barometer for retail sentiment. As of Thursday, XRP trades in South Korean Won (KRW) were the fourth-largest in a 24-hour rolling period. This high trading volume, combined with the surge in withdrawals, suggests a growing bullish sentiment among Korean traders.
Looking Forward
While the recent pullback may cause some short-term volatility, the technical setup and market dynamics point to a strong potential for a 20% rally. Traders and investors should keep a close eye on the mid-$1.40s support level and the overall market sentiment, as these factors will play a crucial role in determining XRP’s next move.
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