The digital asset XRP has been on a downward spiral since October 2025, with five consecutive months of losses. However, recent market trends and technical analysis suggest that March might finally bring a much-needed turnaround.
A Double Bottom Pattern Signals Hope
As of Thursday, XRP was forming a double bottom pattern, a bullish technical formation that occurs when the price hits the same low point twice and then bounces back. This pattern typically resolves with a breakout above the neckline, which in XRP’s case, sits near $1.50. A successful breakout could propel XRP to a target of $1.68–$1.70, representing a 20% increase from current levels.
Whale Activity Shows Signs of Recovery
Data from CryptoQuant reveals that whale outflows have significantly decreased, with the 90-day moving average of net flows dropping from -33.50 million XRP in December to around -3.29 million XRP as of Thursday. Simultaneously, the supply of XRP held by wallets with at least 1,000 tokens has started to rise, indicating that whales may be re-accumulating at these lower prices. This trend is reminiscent of a similar period in April 2025, which preceded a 50% rebound in XRP’s price.
Technical Indicators and Market Sentiment
The double bottom pattern, coupled with the cooling of whale selling, paints a bullish picture for XRP. However, the $1.68–$1.70 resistance area is significant, as it sits above XRP’s 50-day exponential moving average (50-day EMA). A failure to break this resistance could trigger a bearish pennant pattern, potentially leading to a 30% drop to around $1.00.
Macro Risks Loom Large
While the technical setup looks promising, macroeconomic factors could still derail XRP’s recovery. The resurgence of AI-driven risk-off trades and geopolitical tensions, such as those between the U.S. and Iran, could drain liquidity from high-beta assets like XRP. Additionally, broader market sentiment and regulatory developments could impact XRP’s performance.
In conclusion, XRP is showing strong technical and fundamental signals that point to a potential 20% rally in March. However, investors should remain cautious and monitor both technical and macroeconomic indicators. The coming weeks will be crucial in determining whether XRP can break above its key resistance levels and sustain a bullish momentum.
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