Zcash, Hyperliquid tokens lead losses as traders bet against a bitcoin bounce
Crypto markets are under pressure ahead of key U.S. inflation data due later Wednesday.
What to know:
- Crypto markets are under pressure ahead of key U.S. inflation data, with bitcoin back below $61,500 and trading under its 200-week moving average, a level some analysts associate with prolonged bear markets.
- Derivatives positioning and funding rates across major tokens point to growing bearish sentiment and increased short bets.
- A reported 350% jump in Uniswap V4’s total value locked was traced to a hacked, worthless token inflating dashboard figures, while Morpho’s token rallied after a $175 million fundraise.
Bitcoin has retraced to under $61,500, nearly reversing the Sunday bounce that saw prices rise above $64,000 on some exchanges. More importantly, the cryptocurrency is trading below its 200-week simple moving average (SMA), a technical line widely watched by traders.
“The history of the 200-week moving average over the last 11 years (prior to this, the market had not dipped below it) shows that the average time spent near it is almost 11 months, suggesting a very long bear market,” Alex Kuptsikevich, chief market analyst at the FxPro, said in an email.
Derivatives positioning
- Crypto futures volume over the past 24 hours rose 1.2% to $193 billion while open interest fell 1.5% to $102.27 billion. Liquidations, in contrast, jumped 38% to $418 million, with longs accounting for more than $300 million of the total as bitcoin slid back toward $61,000 yesterday.
- Bitcoin futures open interest (OI) nudged higher to 728,000 BTC from 712,000 BTC even as the cryptocurrency’s price fell. Rising OI into a price decline points to fresh short positioning, a sign traders are positioning for a further drop.
- That conclusion is reinforced by negative perpetual funding rates and a negative OI-adjusted 24-hour cumulative volume delta, the latter indicating that sellers are hitting bids at market rather than placing passive limit orders.
- Solana futures OI rose to 69.58 million tokens, up nearly 2% on the day, closing in on the record June 5 peak of 71.57 million. Funding rates and CVD are negative, mirroring bitcoin’s bearish setup .
- The bearish tilt extends across the board. Funding rates and CVD are negative for most major coins, including ether (ETH) and XRP. The lone exception is XMR, whose 24-hour CVD is narrowly positive.
- Bitcoin’s 30-day implied volatility index is 51.21%, up from 45.8% on Monday, reflecting renewed uncertainty ahead of the U.S. CPI release later today. ETH’s implied volatility index has also ticked higher.
- On Deribit, short-term puts on both BTC and ETH continue to command a notable premium over calls, a sign that downside hedging demand remains elevated. One-week implied volatility is trading cheap relative to one-week realized volatility, a setup that favors options buyers.
- In block flows, a long butterfly was structured in the July 31 expiry, involving long positions in calls at the $70,000 and $80,000 strike prices and short 2x in the $75,000 call. The trade profits if BTC consolidates around $75,000 through the end of July, implying the desk behind the position sees limited directional conviction from here.
