Monday’s rally shows signs of crypto gains running on fumes. (Shutterstock)
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By Omkar Godbole (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)
The crypto market started the week on a positive note, but further gains may be limited as signs of fresh capital inflows remain weak.
Ether (ETH) and solana (SOL) prices have risen over 3% since midnight UTC, with BTC up nearly 2% and XRP lagging at 1.5%. The CoinDesk 20 Index has gained 2% to 1,941 points.
The demand side, however, appears weak. The 11 U.S.-listed spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) registered a net outflow of $296.18 million, snapping a four-week streak of inflows, according to data source SoSoValue. Ether ETFs bled over $200 million. These funds are seen as a proxy for institutional appetite for cryptocurrency.
The other route through which capital flows into the digital asset market is stablecoins, or tokenized versions of fiat currencies such as the dollar, and that is also flashing a red signal.
The growth in the market cap of Tether’s USDT, the world’s largest dollar-pegged stablecoin, has stalled at around $184 billion over the past two weeks. The market cap of Circle Internet’s (CRCL) USDC, the second-largest, has declined nearly 1.5% to $77.77 billion.
“Last week, Stablecoins experienced a $-1.1 billion decrease, a negative signal, compared to previous minting, which is in the 2nd percentile. During the last 30 days, a total of $0.8 billion was minted,” Markus Thielen, founder of 10x Research, said in a note to clients Monday.
Veteran chart analyst Peter Brandt said bitcoin’s current price action aligns with classic technical analysis patterns, and prices could fall to as low as $49,000. Options show a bias for put options across all time frames, a sign of lingering downside fears among traders.
Still, a sudden shift in sentiment, perhaps triggered by a potential U.S.-led ceasefire in the Iran conflict, could spark a rally in bitcoin and other risk assets. However, the BTC price would need to establish a firm foothold above $75,000 to signal a full bullish reversal. Stay alert!
Read more: For analysis of today’s activity in altcoins and derivatives, see Crypto Markets Today
What to Watch
For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead“.
Oil rises above $115 and Asia shares slide as Iran war enters fifth week (BBC): The price of Brent crude rose more than 3% to above $115 a barrel, while U.S.-traded oil climbed to $101.62 after gaining almost 2%. Japan’s Nikkei 225 lost 2.8%, while the Kospi in South Korea closed almost 3% lower.
As stablecoins evolve into core financial infrastructure, North America leads. This report maps the regulation, market shifts, and players driving adoption.
Why it matters:
Stablecoins are entering their third phase of evolution – the institutionalization era – becoming increasingly embedded into core financial infrastructure. As institutions prioritize transparency and compliance, regulated issuers like USDC, RLUSD, and PYUSD are steadily gaining share with RLUSD surpassing $1B in market cap within its first year. North America, leading in regulatory frameworks and institutional distribution, is at the center of it all.
