Risk assets are giving back gains across the board. Nasdaq 100 futures erased an earlier 1.1% rally fueled by strong Alphabet and Amazon earnings, MSCI’s Asia Pacific share index fell 1.4%, and European equities were primed to drop 1% at the open.

The dollar gained and bonds slid as the surge in oil and a hawkish Fed hold sapped demand for fixed income. Treasury 10-year yields held near the highest since July, and Japan’s 10-year notes hit the highest level since 1997, per Bloomberg.

Bitcoin’s resilience through the early stages of the war is being tested. The asset has held a tight band between $74,000 and $78,000 through April even as oil ran from $98 to $126 and the conflict entered its third month. Each escalation headline has produced a sharper drawdown, and the cumulative damage is starting to show.

BTC is now $50,000 below its October 2025 all-time high of $126,000.

Fernando Lillo, director at exchange Zoomex, said in a note that any break above $80,000 requires the war premium to unwind.

“Bitcoin is trying to break the key $80,000 level, which would require a resolution to the Middle East conflict and, as a result, a drop in Brent crude oil prices below $100 per barrel,” he said. “One is impossible without the other, and the USA administration’s plans for a prolonged naval blockade of Iran are becoming a real obstacle.”

Lillo flagged a possible scenario where the Trump administration lifts the blockade in coming days and frames it as a response to “positive steps by Iran” to engineer a relief rally.

“A potential lifting of restrictions in the region and lower oil prices could trigger an accelerated influx of capital into risk assets, paving the way for Bitcoin to consolidate above $80,000 and move toward $85,000.”

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HIP-4 could become a dominant prediction-market venue because Hyperliquid users can get economic exposure to platform usage through HYPE, unlike users of Polymarket or Kalshi.

What to know:

  • Arthur Hayes argues Hyperliquid’s planned HIP-4 prediction markets will stand out not just for low fees but because its HYPE token lets users share directly in the platform’s upside.
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