Hyperliquid’s HYPE token could be its prediction market weapon, Arthur Hayes says
HIP-4 could become a dominant prediction-market venue because Hyperliquid users can get economic exposure to platform usage through HYPE, unlike users of Polymarket or Kalshi.
What to know:
- Arthur Hayes argues Hyperliquid’s planned HIP-4 prediction markets will stand out not just for low fees but because its HYPE token lets users share directly in the platform’s upside.
- Polymarket is expected to launch its own token, informally called POLY, with premarket trading implying a roughly $14 billion fully diluted valuation versus about $38 billion for HYPE.
- Regulatory posture sharply divides the rivals, with Polymarket and Kalshi constrained by U.S. and regional rules while Hyperliquid, skewing toward Asian crypto-native traders, operates without comparable compliance limits.
Hayes said that structure is only the first layer. In a note to CoinDesk, he argued that the real differentiator is HYPE, Hyperliquid’s exchange token, which he said allows users to benefit from platform activity in a way Polymarket and Kalshi currently do not.
“HIP-4 will quickly become a dominate prediction market because of Hyperliquid’s large user base, much cheaper trading fees, and very robust tech infrastructure,” Hayes told CoinDesk. “Users who own the $HYPE token can directly profit from their usage of HIP-4.”
Polymarket is expected to launch a token, often referred to as $POLY.
On Gate, premarket perpetual contracts tied to a potential $POLY token are trading around $14, implying a fully-diluted valuation of roughly $14 billion. HYPE, by comparison, has an FDV of about $38 billion, according to CoinGecko data.
