Bitcoin will ‘explode’ past $90,000 on way back to $126,000, Arthur Hayes says
Arthur Hayes, the BitMEX co-founder who now runs Maelstrom, said bitcoin’s return to its October high is a “foregone conclusion,” and he is taking his fund to maximum risk, with HYPE, ZEC, and NEAR as his top altcoin picks.
What to know:
- Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX and CIO of Maelstrom, argues that bitcoin bottomed near $60,000 earlier this year and is now on track to surpass its prior high and reach $126,000.
- He says a break above $90,000 could trigger an “explosive” rally as call-option sellers are forced to buy bitcoin, and he ties the broader bull case to inflationary spending on AI infrastructure and war-related costs.
- Hayes discloses Maelstrom positions in HYPE and ZEC and a growing bet on NEAR, while warning that an overhyped AI IPO or a successful anti-AI political platform in the U.S. could end the crypto rally.
Hayes, who also co-founded the BitMEX exchange, flagged $90,000 as the level where the rally turns explosive. At that point, writers of call options with higher strike prices would be forced to buy bitcoin to cover their positions, accelerating the advance. Call option writers are betting that the price will not rise above a certain level; buyers are betting that it will.
Hayes pointed to two tailwinds behind his targets.
The first is capital expenditure on AI, which, he said, has shifted from being funded by cash flow at the largest software companies to requiring credit creation by commercial banks and central banks. He flagged the Federal Reserve and the People’s Bank of China loosening financial conditions to support the buildout, with Chinese banks specifically redirecting capital from real estate toward tech.
