Strategy’s bitcoin sale sparks a $14 million betting chaos on Polymarket
The 8-K filing by Strategy Monday disclosed sales for the period May 26 to May 31, but the disclosure was issued on June 1. Polymarket’s May 31 contract is sitting at 81% Yes and in review, while bettors argue over whether the onchain transactions or the filing date controls.
What to know:
- A $15 million Polymarket prediction market is in dispute after Strategy’s first disclosed bitcoin sale raised questions about whether trades executed between May 26 and May 31 count toward a May 31 deadline.
- ‘Yes’ bettors argue that onchain timestamps and Strategy’s 8-K, which reports 32 bitcoin sold between May 26 and May 31 and presents activity “as of May 31, 2026, 4:00 p.m. Eastern Time,” prove the sale occurred in time, while No bettors say the lack of public disclosure before June 1 means it should not qualify.
- The contested May 31, June 30 and Dec. 31 contracts have drawn about $24.7 million in volume, and UMA’s optimistic oracle will make the final determination, even as later-dated markets now price Strategy bitcoin sales as a near-certainty.
The bet “MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by ___?” in Polymarket is built on time-stamp-based contracts, each resolving to ‘Yes’ if Michael Saylor’s Strategy sold any bitcoin by 11:59 p.m. ET on its specified deadline.
Where it gets complicated is that the primary sources for the rules governing bet resolution state that the news will be based on MSTR’s filings and onchain data, with a “consensus of credible reporting” as backup.
Strategy sold those bitcoin between May 26 and May 31, but the 8-K was filed on Monday, June 1.
Now that the sale has occurred, the ‘Yes’ contract holders on May 31 argue that, according to the resolution rules, the bet should settle in their favor. Their argument is that the 8-K’s table states the sale occurred before May 31, as the contract states that ‘Yes’ holders should win if the bitcoin activity is ‘presented as of May 31, 2026, 4:00 p.m. Eastern Time.’
