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The escalation dimmed expectations that Washington and Tehran are close to an agreement that could stabilize the Strait of Hormuz, a key global oil shipping route.
Odds of a permanent ceasefire being reached by the end of the month are now just 8% on Polymarket, down from a 70% peak over the weekend. Perceived odds of it being reached by the end of next month slid to 42% from 76%.
On Kalshi, traders are betting traffic in the strait will remain subdued. Brent crude jumped nearly 4% to around $96 per barrel, fueling concerns that higher energy prices could add to inflation pressures worldwide.
Crypto markets reacted alongside broader risk assets. According to Mercado Bitcoin’s head of research, Rony Szuster, investors remain focused on geopolitical risks and upcoming U.S. inflation data, particularly Thursday’s PCE report, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge.
“The crypto market remains structurally resilient, supported by long-term accumulation and the strength of AI and blockchain infrastructure narratives,” Szuster said in a note shared with CoinDesk.
“In the short term, the market remains more sensitive to geopolitical developments and the return of institutional flows after the U.S. holiday, keeping bitcoin in consolidation while altcoins trade in a more selective environment,” he added. Stay alert!
Read more: For analysis of today’s activity in altcoins and derivatives, see Crypto Markets Today . For a comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
Oil rises after Iran and U.S. trade airstrikes (Reuters): The price of oil jumped more than 2% after Iran said it targeted a U.S. airbase in retaliation for an earlier attack. Brent crude futures rose 2.52% to $96.67 a barrel.
Today’s signal
Bitcoin continues to trade below the 50-week exponential moving average of $84,000.
The absence of RSI divergences on the weekly price chart indicate there’s no clear market direction.
The next core level to monitor is the $68,000 support mark.
