Wintermute Says Bitcoin’s Rally Faces Another Trap Unless ETF Demand Returns
Wintermute’s weekly market outlook says bitcoin’s rebound was supported by an in-line U.S. inflation print and easing geopolitical stress. Still, the firm warned that a lasting crypto bottom remains unconfirmed without a clear return of ETF, stablecoin, and digital asset treasury inflows.
Key Takeaways
- Wintermute said bitcoin rose 1.9% as May CPI hit 4.2% and Iran conflict risks eased.
- Bitcoin ETFs and treasury firms remain weak; AUM fell from $220B to $140B.
- Wintermute says Fed signals on June 19 could determine if the rebound continues.
Wintermute Sees No Confirmed Bottom Despite Bitcoin Rebound
Bitcoin found some relief this week, but Wintermute says the recovery is still fragile.
In its latest weekly market update, the crypto market maker said two macro developments helped lift risk assets. U.S. consumer inflation for May came in at 4.2% year over year, the third straight monthly acceleration and the highest reading since 2023. Yet the figure matched expectations, which was enough to calm investors who had feared a hotter print.
Core inflation offered a better signal, easing to 2.9%. Wintermute said that suggests the latest price pressure may be driven more by energy than by a broader rise in wages and services.
The second driver was geopolitical. After more than 100 days, the Iran conflict ended, with President Donald Trump authorizing the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and the lifting of the naval blockade. A formal signing is set for June 19 in Switzerland.
Oil prices fell sharply as the risk premium unwound. Brent dropped from the high $110s to the low $80s over the past month, including a 6.6% decline this week. The dollar weakened 1%, while the 10-year Treasury yield moved back toward 4.50%.
That combination supported risk assets. The Russell 2000 rose 4%, the Nasdaq gained 2.3%, altcoins climbed 3.1%, and bitcoin added 1.9%. Ether lagged, slipping 0.4% despite the broader rebound.
Crypto Bounce Lacks Fresh Capital
The latest recovery follows a sharp selloff two weeks ago, when bitcoin fell 14%, and the broader crypto market dropped more than 10%. Some traders blamed Strategy’s sale of 32 BTC, but Wintermute said the larger forces were macro pressure and fading momentum after bitcoin ran from the low $60,000s to $83,000.
That rally now looks more like a bear-market fakeout than a new cycle high, according to the firm’s outlook.
Bitcoin has suffered three drawdowns of more than 20% since last October. This latest move has been more choppy than directional, catching both bulls and bears. Perpetual and options markets show little appetite for strong directional bets, pointing to possible summer consolidation unless a major catalyst arrives.
The key issue is liquidity. Wintermute said crypto still depends heavily on three capital channels: stablecoins, exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and digital asset treasury companies. None has clearly turned higher.
Digital asset treasury assets under management have fallen to about $140 billion from $220 billion. Outside Strategy, Bitmine, and Strive, fresh fundraising has largely slowed. Bitcoin ETFs recently posted their longest outflow streak since launch, while stablecoin flows remain under pressure.
That makes it difficult to call a bottom. Long-term buyers may see value in the low $60,000s, and selling pressure has eased. But without sustained inflows, any rally risks becoming another trap.
The next test is the Federal Reserve. No rate change is expected, so attention will fall on the updated projections and Kevin Warsh’s first press conference. A dovish reading of softer core inflation and lower oil could extend the bounce. A focus on 4.2% headline inflation could end it quickly.
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